), The Year that Was with BGen Steve Cheney, USMC (Ret. The response to Irma required activation of approximately 8,000 Florida National Guard troops. “Just last year, Hurricane Florence caused $3.6 billion in damages to Camp Lejeune, home of the Marines’ expeditionary units on the East Coast.”. Perspective – Beijing's Quandary: Clean or Dirty Growth? Climate change presents a serious threat to the security and prosperity of the United States and other countries. These changes are so dangerous simply because they are so difficult to predict. These abrupt changes could manifest themselves in sudden changes in the Indian Ocean monsoon seasons – harming water supplies across all of India and Pakistan. No region of the world will be left unaffected. In addition, a group of 58 senior retired U.S. military and national security leaders are also advocating for the view that climate change is a serious threat to security. The Global Security Defense Index on climate change evaluates the extents of governments in considering climate change to be a national security issue. I am not a scientist, so I will leave the rest of the explanation to NASA scientist Jim Hansen, who discussed the science of climate change in a recent TED speech. It was Vice President Dick Cheney who first enunciated the “1% doctrine” in which the War on Terror empowered the U.S. government to say “Even if there’s just a 1 percent chance of the unimaginable coming due, act as if it is a certainty.” What we have now is at least 95% certainty from the science community, and yet you have many American politicians (including more than a few who supported Cheney’s pre-emptive doctrines) saying we cannot act because we do not have certainty. Mr. Frank De Jong’s letter “Militarizing climate change” of Dec. 10 seems misguided on many fronts. It started because of a 10-year drought.” Goldfein told lawmakers at the hearing (“The Need for Leadership to Combat Climate Change and Protect National Security,” 9 April 2019). “This diverts resources away from the armed forces that are needed to ensure security,” Stavridis says. This blog post, cross-posted from Energy, Security, Policy, explains why it is so important.. A changing climate is important enough that our national security planners are studying it closely. ASP has been a leader in looking at the national security implications of the Climate Change, since the publication of the Climate Security Index in 2009. “Its effects are even used by our adversaries as a weapon of war; ISIS used water shortages in Iraq, in part driven by a changing climate, to cement their hold on the population during their reign of terror from 2014 to 2017.”. Alexandria, Virginia 22314-2882 It will require a ‘whole of government’ focus that directs actions towards mitigating emissions, building resilience into domestic infrastructure, financing adaptation, and planning to respond to disasters. It is spurring more disastrous and deadly weather events like catastrophic hurricanes; the response to these events often includes troops, billions of dollars in disaster relief, and other resources. Fact Sheet – China's Fossil-Fueled Growth, Perspective – Choosing the American Model: Development Finance as a Soft Power Tool in Africa. Fact Sheet – Will China's Future be Cleaner? Retired U.S. Navy Admiral James Stavridis has spent nearly 11 years living day-to-day on deep ocean, in places where no land can be seen. “The effects of a changing climate are a national security issue with potential impacts to Department of Defense missions, operational plans, and installations,” states the 22-page document, which was published Thursday. For the Harvey response, officials deployed more than 6,000 active duty troops and 6,000 members of the Texas National Guard. The IPCC consensus warming of an average one or two degrees Celsius increase over a multi-decade period is not that worrying. That’s the finding of a recent report by the CNA Corporation’s Military Advisory Board, a panel I serve on along with some of our country’s most senior retired military leaders. Our domestic security is threatened by the effects of climate change. “When disaster strikes, local fire departments will be the first to arrive,” Eggleston said. 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And the potential consequences of this development go beyond environmental damage. By Chloe Thompson Opinion Contributor Aug. 1, 2017, at 1:30 p.m. Our Climate Is Our Security Policy interest in climate security risks has grown rapidly and affects the policy agenda in relation to, among other questions, food and energy security, migration policy, and diplomatic efforts. Climate change poses security risks, according to decades of intelligence reports: Intelligence analysts have agreed since the late 80s that climate change poses serious security risks. "It dried up their crops, they had to move, and they had to make a living. The report’s findings on the direct impacts of climate change on our national security is all about risks to the critical, hard infrastructure that helps sustain our national strength, and the military personnel who support it. Influence is Waning. It would be a stretch to say that any of these examples threaten the narrowly defined ‘national security’ of the United States: we’re not likely to see civil conflict or state collapse here at home from violent weather. One, Hurricane Irma in Florida, was the most powerful Atlantic storm in recorded history. Given this, Stavridis says that the U.S. military must recognize that it will be increasingly called on to respond to natural disasters such as hurricanes, wildfires, and drought. O ver the past several years the U.S. intelligence community has engaged with the National Academy of Sciences and National Research Council (NRC) concerning a range of issues related to climate and security. national security interests . The other, Houston’s Hurricane Harvey, was the second most destructive natural disaster (measured by damage costs) in American history, second only to Hurricane Katrina. “This diverts resources away from the armed forces that are needed to ensure security,” Stavridis says. The recent outbreak of tornadoes across the Midwest should remind us: living in a wealthy nation does not afford us protection from violent and unpredictable weather. Such instability presents national security challenges because it can breed more terrorist attacks and push the United States into more foreign conflicts. Both hurricanes required major military deployments. […] Holland: Why Climate Change is A Matter of National Security […], Perspective – Diplomacy in the 21st Century Middle East, This report explores three diplomatic projects in the Middle East, in an effort to highlight noteworthy efforts at collaboration in contrast to stories about conflict. Further – it is unequivocal that this warming is being driven by man-made greenhouse gas emissions. It is spurring more disastrous and deadly weather events like catastrophic hurricanes; the response to these events often includes troops, billions of dollars in disaster relief, and other resources. USA, The Need for Leadership to Combat Climate Change and Protect National Security, data from the National Interagency Fire Center. However, Americans and Europeans cannot afford to simply think that the dangers of climate change lie in the developing world. A terror attack, he explains, captures everyone’s attention and is a visible security threat. One of the big problems about predicting the security affects of climate change is in the art of prediction itself. Stavridis also advocates for cooperation among the nine combatant commands and the Joint Chiefs of Staff, so that they can produce contingency plans that will factor in security challenges induced by climate change. “Around the world, climate change is a ‘threat multiplier,’ making other security threats worse,” the group said. (November 12, 2018) adshelp[at]cfa.harvard.edu The ADS is operated by the Smithsonian Astrophysical Observatory under NASA Cooperative Agreement NNX16AC86A In each of these cases, climate change acts as a threat multiplier: it’s not just that the effects of climate change (sea level rise, melting glaciers, drought, etc) that will be dangerous, but it’s how people living in the affected regions react. Perspective – A Closer Look at the U.S. Strategy on Sanctions, Protecting Yourself from Disinformation in 2020, ASP COO Andrew Holland in High North News, U.S. Congress Gives Support for New Fusion Public-Private Partnership, Trump Administration Decision to Withdraw from Syria Another Sign U.S. As explained by the group of 58 military and national security leaders in the open letter, “Our climate will continue to change, and the threats will continue to grow.”, ASIS International over the next 20 years . A changing climate is important enough that our national security planners are studying it closely. ASP has been a leader in looking at the national security implications of the Climate Change, since the publication of the Climate Security Index in 2009. Global climate change presents a serious national security threat that could affect Americans at home, impact U.S. military operations and heighten global … Join our mailing list to receive weekly newsletters and exclusive invites to upcoming events. The congressionally mandated analysis looked at a total of 79 military installations around the country. And, that warming is accelerating: the warmest decade on record was the 2000s, with each of the three decades previous to that warmer than the decade before. In terms of the actual frequency of disastrous events, experts point to a disturbing increase in recent years. The fact is that the earth is warming, and has been for at least a century. Moreover, rising sea levels are damaging the U.S. security infrastructure, including coastal military bases, Stavridis adds. As Robert Rapier recently posted, shutting down all coal plants today would only lead to .2 degrees less warming. Or, changing patterns of drought in Africa could further exacerbate problems of food security for millions in dry regions like the Sahel, pushing migrants across contested borders. 1625 Prince Street But he still describes himself in published writings as “a simple mariner,” and he is a mariner with a message: Ice is rapidly melting at both polar caps. At a U.S. House Committee on Oversight and Reform hearing in April, Goldfein cited the Syrian Civil War as an example of how climate change’s impact has already destabilized some nations. For example, changing patterns of glacier formation, precipitation, and snowmelt in the Himalayas will alter the river flows of the great East Asian rivers, upon which about 20% of humanity depends. But, we should all agree that the science is conclusive enough that we cannot simply ignore it – or claim that it’s some sort of UN plot. Specifically, he says that the Pentagon’s Northern Command, which deals with non-military domestic emergencies, should receive more funding for planning and training related to environmental events. Stavridis says global climate change, which is causing the polar cap melt, has an especially “pernicious” effect on national security because it is hard to see and often occurs over time. . Nonetheless, he says climate change is a threat to national security in several ways. This blog post, cross-posted from Energy, Security, Policy, explains why it is so important. Not only does it increase the sense of urgency, but it also creates a path for environmental solutions. DOD's six … He knows well the cruciality of the seas—how they produce much of our oxygen, enable most of our international trade, and provide increasing amounts of our energy. Finally, in a development that threatens the very existence of a nation, Kiribati, the country’s Cabinet endorseda plan to buy nearly 6,000 acres of Fiji in order to move Kiribati’s population if a rising sea swallows their islands. Joshua W. Busby Associate Professor of Public Affairs, University of Texas-Austin Instead, the possibility of rapid or dangerous non-linear changes in climate could cause widespread damage. Reviews "Climate Change and National Security is a must-read for undergraduates, graduate students, and research professionals alike. The letter was sponsored by CCS and the American Security Project. Climate change is a growing threat to our very existence. President-elect Barack Obama said on Tuesday attacking global climate change is a "matter of urgency" that will create jobs as he got advice from Al Gore, who won a … And – they are the most threatening to national security planners because rapid changes like this will inevitably cause reactions by people that could cause conflict. ..Find out more, Fact Sheet – Nuclear Arsenals of the U.S., Russia, and China, This fact sheet explores the basic statistics behind each country's nuclear capabilities and explores the prospects of Chinese inclusion in a trilateral nuclear agreement with Russia and the United States. Or a rapid collapse in tropical forest, due to altered moisture levels in the air. Recognizing that the impact of climate change is … Climate change and national security aren't two separate issues, retired Brigadier General Stephen Cheney told Public Radio International last week. But – climate change is not a matter of ‘belief’ – it is a matter of fact. Each of us is a hard-nosed leader with decades of experience evaluating national security risks. Others in the military and government are echoing Stavridis’ view in various ways. “It’s a pretty significant national security threat,” he tells Security Management. Last year, a report issued by the Center for Climate and Security (CCS) found that more than 200 U.S. military installations had been flooded by storm surges, compared to about 30 in 2008. Nowadays, Stavridis, who served as NATO Supreme Allied Commander from 2009 to 2013, has a busy post-naval career as a security expert commentator, author, and operations executive for the Carlyle Company. Climate change is destabilising the world and becoming 'threat to national security', US security chiefs warn. Indeed, the concept of contingency planning is being embraced by others who are sounding the alarm about climate change effects because they say that better preparation on the front end will make a large difference. Climate Change as a National Security Concern. “Most don’t remember what caused the Syria conflict to start. (April 8, 2019). The 2014 Quadrennial Defense Review labeled climate change as a "threat multiplier," meaning the stressors already present around the world ("poverty, environmental degradation, political instability, and social tensions") will likely be amplified and worsened by the introduction of climate impacts. . ..Find out more, Posted by Andrew HollandNov 24, 2020 | Read More, Posted by Adam VanGorderJan 19, 2021 | Read More, Posted by Patrick HinesJan 13, 2021 | Read More, Posted by Andrew HollandJun 24, 2020 | Read More, Posted by American Security ProjectJan 02, 2020 | Read More, Posted by Andrew HollandDec 11, 2019 | Read More, Posted by American Security ProjectNov 04, 2019 | Read More, Posted by Andrew HollandJul 12, 2019 | Read More, Posted by Andrew HollandMay 23, 2019 | Read More, Posted by Andrew HollandApr 22, 2019 | Read More, Posted by Andrew HollandMar 05, 2019 | Read More, Posted by American Security ProjectFeb 21, 2019 | Read More, Posted by Andrew HollandDec 11, 2018 | Read More, Posted by Connor WagnerOct 15, 2018 | Read More, Posted by Katherine SeeversJan 19, 2021 | Read More, Posted by Rylee BoydJan 19, 2021 | Read More, Posted by Claire BrennerJan 19, 2021 | Read More, Posted by Rylee BoydJan 12, 2021 | Read More, Posted by American Security ProjectJan 07, 2021 | Read More, Posted by Annie AlemanDec 23, 2020 | Read More, Posted by American Security ProjectDec 22, 2020 | Read More, Posted by Alicia OrrDec 18, 2020 | Read More, Posted by Patrick HinesDec 18, 2020 | Read More, Posted by American Security ProjectOct 13, 2020 | Read More, Posted by Matthew WallinSep 29, 2020 | Read More, Posted by American Security ProjectSep 21, 2020 | Read More, Posted by American Security ProjectSep 01, 2020 | Read More, Posted by American Security ProjectAug 26, 2020 | Read More, Posted by American Security ProjectAug 19, 2020 | Read More, Posted by American Security ProjectJun 17, 2020 | Read More, Posted by American Security ProjectJun 03, 2020 | Read More, Posted by American Security ProjectApr 14, 2020 | Read More, Posted by American Security ProjectMar 19, 2020 | Read More, Posted by American Security ProjectDec 06, 2019 | Read More, Posted by John MadeiraSep 11, 2020 | Read More, Posted by Matthew WallinFeb 28, 2020 | Read More, Posted by Alexandra HackbarthSep 27, 2019 | Read More, Posted by Andrew HollandSep 17, 2019 | Read More, Posted by Matthew WallinFeb 28, 2019 | Read More, Posted by Andrew HollandDec 19, 2018 | Read More. ’ s attention and is a growing threat to America ’ s a pretty significant national in... 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